When does a protest become a revolution?

On 15 April, around 80 Serbian students arrived by bicycle in Strasbourg.  They had spent the previous 12 days cycling from Novi Sad in Serbia, a journey of more than 1300km, across 6 different countries, without a break.  Their message?  That corruption in Serbia needs to end - now.

These ongoing protests began back in November 2024, when a station roof in Novi Sad, Serbia’s second city, collapsed, killing 16.  The response to this tragedy was to question the transparency of investment in Serbia’s infrastructure, since it was not clear exactly who was to blame.  Students have now been organising protests in Serbia for several months, with perhaps as many as 325,000 gathering in Belgrade on 15 March, the largest anti-government protest in Serbia for decades.  Universities across the country have been shut down now for five months.

 

Crowds gather in Belgrade on 15 March 2025

Serbia has a complex relationship with protests.  It was popular protest that finally topped Slobodan Milošević in 2000, but Zoran Đinđić, who played a major role in that movement and subsequently became Prime Minister, was assassinated in 2003.  After a period of unrest, in 2012 Aleksandr Vučić began his rise to power, first as Prime Minister and then, since 2017, as President. His regime has become increasingly autocratic, with close ties to Russia (including support for the invasion of Ukraine) and China, despite also being a candidate join the EU since 2012.

Hence the students’ journey to Strasbourg, the second seat of the European Union.  They want to ensure that Serbia is not permitted to become a member of the EU until it sorts its corruption out.  “The country needs to deliver on EU reforms, in particular to take decisive steps towards media freedom, the fight against corruption and the electoral reform,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote on X on 25 March.

 

Prime Minister Miloš Vučević resigned in January, possibly a sacrificial lamb for the ruling party, and on 6 April Vučić appointed Đuro Macut, a little-known medical professor, as Prime Minister. Critics fear that the politically-inexperienced Macut will be little more than a puppet for Vučić. Thus far, the appointment of a new government has made no perceptible difference.

 

Vučić appears defiant in the face of the protests, declaring at one point that, “You will have to kill me if you want to replace me.”  He is cracking down on protests – allegedly using a sound canon to break up the protest in March – and on press freedoms.  The NGO Reporters Without Borders (RSF) has said that the pressure exerted on independent outlets from ministers and state-backed media has reached levels not seen since the 1990s.  If it seems like you haven’t heard much about what is going on in Serbia, this may be why.

 

A counter rally in support of the government, its ranks swelled by Serb nationalists from neighbouring Kosovo and Bosnia, took place on 13 April and was attended by 55,000 people, which, though smaller than the anti-government protest, is no inconsiderable number.  Vučić addressed the crowd in typically bullish manner, claiming the student protesters had "inflicted huge evil on Serbia in the past five months."  He also stated that, "Certain foreign powers cannot bear to see a free, independent and sovereign Serbia”, without clarifying which "powers" he was referring to.

 

For their part, the students themselves are keen to keep nationalism out of their protests and focus only on domestic corruption. When nationalist symbols, including the controversial map of Kosovo with ‘No Surrender’ plastered across it (a reference to the Serb nationalist claim that Kosovo will always remain part of Serbia), student leaders were quick to stress that geopolitics had no part to play in their protests.

 

Serbia is clearly a troubled nation.  Its status as a pariah state in Europe has driven it towards Russia and away from the EU.  Despite being vilified for its part in the Yugoslav wars, Serbia has never apologised for its role.  Many Serbs remain angry at the west and NATO for its bombing during the Kosovo War, with bombed out buildings left untouched as reminders of what was done to the country.  If there is hope of banishing the ghosts of the past, it may lie with the younger generation, as has been the case throughout history when it comes to movements affecting radical change.

 

The protests remain ongoing.  This week, the protesters have called for a snap election, and though Vučić has vehemently opposed the idea, there are small signs that the tide may be turning.  Even Trump seems to think Vučić is toxic – it is rumoured that he denied the Serbian president a meeting on his visit to the USA last week.  And if POTUS thinks you’re doing something wrong, you really must be.

 

On 25 April, a group of students from Belgrade began a relay ultramarathon to Brussels that will cover almost 2000km.  They plan to arrive in Brussels on 12 May, when the European Parliament should be in session, in order to deliver letters about the political situation in Serbia.  One of the students taking part said the hope is that the letters will be read in Brussels so that “more attention will be given to the deep political and social crisis in Serbia.”  One can only hope that these young people will succeed in bringing the world’s notice to their country and help to bring about the end of the era of the rabid nationalist politician in the Balkans.

 

References and Further Reading

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/30/we-are-done-with-corruption-how-the-students-of-serbia-rose-up-against-the-system

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/15/tensions-mount-in-serbia-as-protesters-converge-on-belgrade

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/21/calls-serbia-investigation-claims-sound-cannon-targeted-protesters

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/23/press-freedom-in-serbia-is-facing-a-dangerous-turning-point-warn-editors

 

https://www.rferl.org/a/serbia-cyclists-students-strasbourg-Vučić-canopy/33386850.html

 

https://www.rferl.org/a/serbia-Vučić-railway-canopy-protest-belgrade-students/33349372.html

 

https://balkaninsight.com/2025/04/16/serbian-students-bring-protest-cause-to-strasbourg-after-bicycle-marathon/

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly18qd7x7do

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0qdyg8yn5yo

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/thousands-gather-pro-government-rally-serbia-2025-04-12/

 

https://intellinews.com/serbs-from-kosovo-march-to-belgrade-for-pro-government-rally-375863/?source=kosovo

https://a2news.com/english/rajoni-bota/ballkani/fare-fshihet-pas-pankartes-per-kosoven-ne-protestat-e-stude-i1137934

 

https://prishtinainsight.com/serbias-student-protests-and-kosovo-between-hope-and-concerns-mag/

 

https://balkaninsight.com/2025/04/30/exemplary-punishment-the-people-paying-the-price-for-supporting-serbias-protests/

 

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/serbias-protesting-students-demand-snap-090746622.html

 

https://balkaninsight.com/2025/04/25/message-to-europe-serbian-student-protesters-begin-ultramarathon-to-brussels/

Dayton's Discontents: Life After Peace in Bosnia

More than any other European nation, Bosnia has struggled to shake its association with war in the eyes of the western world.  Tell someone you’re off on a trip there and more often than not they’ll ask, with a look of surprise, “is it safe?”  Until last week, apart from the landmines scattered across Bosnia’s beautiful countryside, the only signs of the war that tore the country apart in the 1990s were bullet and shell marks peppering buildings in many towns and cities.  To the casual traveller, passing through, Bosnia is a country of culture, history, good food and stunning scenery and Sarajevo easily holds its own against any of the European capitals as a vibrant, cosmopolitan city.  But scratch a little deeper and you’ll find the divisions and disillusions that have flared into violent protests over the last few days.

It started in the north-eastern town of Tuzla last Wednesday.  Unemployed workers took to the streets to protest about their poor pensions and unpaid benefits in a town that was once an industrial hub.  By the weekend the protests had spread to Sarajevo, Zenica and Mostar, where government buildings were set on fire and protesters clashed with the police.  Bosnians are taking to the streets to object to the corruption, nepotism and petty squabbling of their politicians, who they hold responsible for Bosnia’s economic stagnation.

Official statistics put unemployment in Bosnia at 27.5%, but it is believed that up to 44% of Bosnians are out of work.  Youth unemployment is estimated at around 60%.  The Bosnian economy has never fully recovered from the war.  Privatisations of state firms have been rife with crooked deals.  Added to the fact that most of these companies had already racked up massive debts during the collapse of the Yugoslav economy in the 1980s is the sad truth that Bosnia no longer has any industry to speak of and no service economy to fall back on.

The war in Bosnia ended nineteen years ago, in December 1995, with the signing of the Dayton Peace Accords.  They left the country divided between the semi-autonomous Republika Srpska (RS) and the Bosnian-Croat Federation.  The government of Bosnia-Herzegovina is headed by a three member presidency - a Bosniak and a Croat from the Federation and a Serb from the RS – with the Chair rotating every eight months.  Though the idea of electing politicians based on ethnicity is troubling, in reality Bosnia’s politicians are distant, bloated elites barely distinguishable from one another, regardless of their nominative party.  Below the national government are layers of local government, divided into cantons, which in turn are subdivided into municipalities.  This multi-layered and unwieldy system leads to frequent political deadlock, such as that seen last summer over the failure to pass a law on issuing ID numbers.  The stalemate, which resulted in the death of a young baby unable to leave the country for vital medical treatment, sparked protests in Sarajevo, which died down after only a few days.  But the embers have been glowing ever since, and last week were ignited once more.

The aim of the Dayton Peace Accords was to end the fighting in a way that would be acceptable to all sides.  In many ways it is an impressive piece of diplomacy, creating a structure within which Bosnia could begin its recovery from the conflict free from inter-ethnic power struggles.  But, nearly twenty years on, Dayton has its critics.  Eric Gordy believes that Dayton created a “permanent,parasitic political class.”  Like naughty schoolchildren, Dayton left Bosnia under international guardianship, in the shape of the Office of the High Representative, an international envoy who is unaccountable to the Bosnian people.  Others have argued that Dayton left Bosnia’s political situation unstable and divided along ethnic lines.

Prior to Dayton, the most serious attempt at a peace deal was the Vance-Owen Peace Plan (VOPP), put forward in 1993, which proposed division of Bosnia into ten semi-autonomous cantons.  The VOPP was rejected by the three warring parties, who could not agree on the divisions.  By August 1995, when an intense bombing campaign by NATO finally forced the BSA to surrender, the situation on the ground had changed sufficiently to allow the parties to sign a peace deal without losing face.  The UN “safe areas” in Eastern Bosnia had fallen to the BSA, eliminating the troublesome Bosniak pockets and allowing virtual ethnic homogeneity in the east of the country, and the Bosniaks and Bosnian Croats had formed an uneasy alliance against the Bosnian Serbs.  Under these circumstances, peace was achieved and Bosnia, which had dominated news bulletins for three years, slipped from the public consciousness.

 “Look at us now, my God! Look at Vucko and cry.”

The world had forgotten about Bosnia.  It took three days for western news outlets to pick up on last week’s protests, and they have now disappeared once more from the headlines.  It would seem that as long as the Bosnians aren’t killing each other, the world doesn’t want to know.  In a somewhat jarring juxtaposition with the protests, British gold medal-winning ice dancers Jayne Torvill and Christopher Dean returned to Sarajevo today to celebrate the thirtieth anniversary of their success in the 1984 Winter Olympics.  It seems it is easier to remember the Bolero than to remember the plight of the Bosnian people.

There have been calls for both further engagement by the international community and Bosnian self-determination in equal measure.  Peace deals imposed by foreign diplomats which leave nations crippled, humiliated and disgruntled can be dangerous.  Yet Dayton cannot take all the blame and it is important to note that the protests are targeted against internal politicians, not the international community.  Discontent has been brewing in Bosnia for some time, held back only by fear of descent into the violence of the 1990s.  Bosnians need to take ownership of the problems in their country.  The protests, which have resulted in the resignation of the leaders of a number of cantons, are a start.  Far better than accepting the terms imposed by outsiders is initiating internal reforms; by the people, for the people.

Whilst some believe that the protests have united Bosnians from all ethnic backgrounds, the protests have yet to have much of an impact in the RS.  Some Bosnian Serbs are fearful that the movement will undermine the autonomy of the RS, which is not as dysfunctional as the Federation.  Although it seems impossible to talk of Bosnia without mentioning ethnic divides, there is a danger that the ethno-nationalists will try to hijack the growing national discourse for their own ends and steer it off course.  If real change is to be effected in Bosnia, this cannot be allowed to happen.

"Courts and police are protecting the gangs in power"

The protests need direction if they are to achieve anything.  The frustration is understandable, but mindless vandalism is not the answer.  There are signs that the protests are starting to organise, with a series of plenums organised across the country.  The ruling political class cannot be expected to tear down a system from which they reap such great financial rewards.  What the protesters need is someone to direct the anger and despair; leaders who are not part of the status quo, who can translate their frustrations into the reforms that are needed to stimulate the economy.  The early elections that have been called for will be pointless until someone emerges to take on this mantle.  When they do, Bosnia’s Spring may finally bloom.